Spinning Their Wheels
Pirates' Pitchers Struggle For Consistency
By Jim Lachimia

When it comes to pitching, making predictions isn't easy. Followers of the hometown Pittsburgh Pirates are no doubt keenly aware of that by now.

Prior to the 2003 season, the general consensus was that the Pirates would have a formidable bullpen. After all, Mike Williams had registered a club-record 46 saves the year before, and set-up men Scott Sauerbeck and Brian Boehringer also had outstanding seasons. The trio combined to fashion an excellent 2.92 ERA in 2002. More of the same was expected.

But 2003 turned out to be a disaster for the three relievers. Their combined ERA ballooned to an unsightly 5.28 with Williams posting a horrid 6.27 mark. Williams and Sauerbeck were traded before the end of the summer, and Boehringer remains a target of fan venom.

During spring training this year, there was considerable talk about the Pirates' starting rotation being the backbone of the team. But as the 2004 season nears the halfway point, starting pitching is perhaps the only area of the team that has underachieved. Through June 27, Pittsburgh's starting rotation was a combined 18-31 with a 5.31 ERA in 72 games. It had the fewest victories and the fewest innings pitched (412) of any starting staff in the National League, and only the Colorado Rockies, who have the thin air of Coors Field as an excuse, had a higher ERA.

22-year-old lefty Oliver Perez, who wasn't even a lock to make the team, has been Pittsburgh's most consistent starter. He had a 3-4 record, but he was the only season-long member of the rotation with an ERA under 5.00 (3.38) and fewer hits allowed (65) than innings pitched (85.1). In addition, Perez led the National League with 10.8 strike-outs per 9 innings pitched. Although Kris Benson had strung some good starts together by mid-June, he and Kip Wells, both projected as top-of-the-rotation guys, were a combined 8-12, each with an ERA above 5.00.

Why is it so difficult to accurately project performance when it comes to pitchers? How can fans, media and even club officials be so far off?

First, let's examine the bullpen collapse of 2003.

Not only did Williams, Sauerbeck and Boehringer have outstanding years, Mike Fetters (3.26 ERA) and Mike Lincoln (3.11) were also solid. However, pitching coach Spin Williams believes you need more than one good year to properly evaluate and come to a discernible conclusion that a certain part of the team is going to be strong.

"Our bullpen was probably not as talented as a lot of bullpens in 2002, but they had better years just because they got on a roll, got some breaks, and continued to flow," he said. "And we had so many valuable guys in the bullpen that we didn't have to overexpose them. When you have two, three or four guys in the bullpen who have great years, you have a good bullpen. When one or two falter, and there are periods of time when the third or fourth falters, you get into trouble.

"In 2002, everybody was picking each other up and it was a good year. But had they done it year after year? No. You get caught up in weighing one year. It's tough to evaluate your team unless you have veteran guys who have done it year after year."

Pirates' color analyst and former pitcher Bob Walk agrees that track records over an extended period are the best indicators of future performance, but even that method of evaluation is not infallible because every pitcher starts to go downhill at some point. Injuries can also be a factor.

"If you have a track record of solid performance, and now this guy is getting into his prime physically, say late twenties, there's where you're probably as sure as you're ever going to be about what this guy or that part of the team is going to do," Walk said. "Last year with the bullpen, you were looking at guys who had track records, but not that long of track records. And there were inconsistencies."

In considering the Pirates' starting rotation of 2004, Walk may have hit the nail on the head when he said building that group up so much in February was likely the byproduct of nothing more than wishful thinking.

"Knowing that on paper, your team isn't going to be one of the stronger teams in the division, you start looking for what could be a bright spot, and maybe you end up talking yourself into a certain area being better than it is," Walk said. "Coming into the 2004 season, the bullpen was a huge question mark. You didn't have any idea what that was going to be like. It didn't look like we were going to be a great defensive team, and we probably weren't going to score a ton of runs. So that left the starting rotation, and you think 'There's a possibility there.' With a team like ours, you start wishing more than objectively looking at it."

Littlefield, not prone to overestimating the talent on his roster, was the voice of reason during spring training.

"It would have been easy to jump on and say, 'Hey, these guys are talented, they throw hard and they're going to be good,'" Littlefield said. "But at the same time, Benson hadn't pitched since July. (Ryan) Vogelsong had seven major league starts coming into the season, and Perez looked erratic in spring training. That's three of the five. Those are some pretty concerning issues breaking camp."

Walk said that theoretically a major league pitching coach should have an easy job because when pitchers get to the big leagues they should already be polished. But Williams is one pitching coach who hasn't had that luxury. He still does a lot of teaching. And he is often forced to focus on mechanics rather than strategy, especially with young starters such as Perez, Vogelsong, and Sean Burnett

"It takes a major league pitcher 1,000 innings before he's got some seasoning to him," Williams said."None of our guys have anything close to 1,000 innings. You look at a lot of good pitchers, and they've had a lot of ups and downs their first five or six years. If our guys were six- or seven-year major league veterans, I think you would have a better chance of predicting what they were going to do.

"These guys are capable of throwing up some good numbers because they've all got talent, good enough stuff and the ability to be starters in the major leagues."

Nonetheless, it's still difficult to pinpoint when that talent will manifest itself.

Jim Lachimia is the editor of the Pirates' monthly On Deck magazine.