NFL Outlook
By Jerry Dipaola

QUESTIONS

Will Nick Saban carry his magic across Dixie from Louisiana to south Florida?

The last time the Miami Dolphins brought in a former college head coach to run their team, the attempt failed. Jimmy Johnson, who had success with the Cowboys, took the Dolphins to the postseason in three of his four seasons, but his tenure was scarred by playoff losses of 38-3 and 62-7 to the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. Saban won't have to worry about losing in the playoffs this season. The Dolphins aren't a playoff team. Saban, a former Bill Belichick assistant in Cleveland, must find a quarterback among Gus Frerotte, A.J. Feeley, Brock Berlin and Sage Rosenfels (ouch!) and deal with Ricky Williams' return from Oz. But Saban knows football, knows how to handle young people and he thinks like Belichick. Give him a year or two and the Dolphins will lose another playoff game again. Can Randy Moss do for the Raiders what he did for the Vikings?

The only surprising part of Moss' arrival at Raiders training camp in a purple SUV is that Al Davis didn't jump out of the passenger seat. Davis likes nothing more than big plays through the air, and Moss will provide them. All you need to know is that he has 90 touchdowns in seven seasons, averages nearly 16 yards every time he makes a catch and isn't yet 29. Raiders coach Norv Turner believes Moss will be a leader in Oakland. He needs to be right. The Raiders are 9-23 since going to the Super Bowl two years ago. Can the Patriots win without departed offensive and defensive coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel?

The group hug Patriots coach Bill Belichick had with Weis and Crennel at the end of Super Bowl XXXXIX shouted volumes about what those assistants meant to the team. Still, Belichick remains in charge and the new offensive coordinator thinks just like the boss. In fact, he is the boss - Belichick will call his own plays. Meanwhile, losing linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson won't help new defensive schemer Eric Mangini.

Will Peyton Manning finally find the key to unlocking the Patriots' defense and make it to the Super Bowl?

Manning has the talent, the desire, the smarts, the experience and the weapons around him. How can he fail? Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Edgerrin James and tight end Dallas Clark would make even Kent Graham look good. Well, let's not go that far, but you get the picture.

TOP NEW ACQUISITIONS

Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens, wide receivers
Steelers' fans no longer can make fun of the Ravens' passing game. If Keydrick Vincent can help keep quarterback Kyle Boller upright, he should be able to find Mason, formerly of the Titans, and Clayton, the 22nd player chosen overall in this year's draft. The punch up top will help the muscle on the ground, opening space for running back Jamal Lewis. David Pollack and Odell Thurman, Cincinnati Bengals, linebackers OK, Pollack and Thurman are rookies, but they were the 17th and 48th players drafted overall and they play with spirit and purpose. Marvin Lewis has yet to wield his defensive magic in Cincinnati and there is a good reason for that. He never has had the players. He does now.

Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson and J.J. Arrington, rookie running backs
The Dolphins, Buccaneers, Bears and Cardinals will put the fate of their running games largely into the young hands of Brown, Williams, Benson and Arrington. Each back will get ample opportunity to carry the ball. The league's offensive rookie of the year will come from this bunch, and don't be surprised if it's Arrington, the only one not drafted in the first round.

Travis Henry, Tennessee Titans, running back
The Titans had to give Bills' president Tom Donahoe a third-round draft choice for Henry, but it may turn into a bargain. Henry is tough and productive, and knows how to run between the tackles. The Titans aren't sold on the fragile Chris Brown, who gained 1,067 yards but missed five games last season.

BOLD PREDICTIONS

The Patriots will fall short of Super Bowl Extra Large.

Super Bowl XL in Detroit appears to be just the super-sized stage for Belichick and Tom Brady to become the first team to win three in a row. Sorry. There are too many good teams in the AFC (the Ravens, Colts, Steelers, Jaguars, Bengals and Chiefs come to mind) and too many holes in the Patriots' defense. Hey, Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions and still put up 27 points on the Pats. The Ravens will win the AFC North.

Brian Billick finally has some offensive punch to complement his genius. The defense always has been good and this year it might be great, with linebacker Ray Lewis rebounding after his performance fell off last year. The Ravens also have the best secondary in the NFL, with cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle (formerly of the Titans) and safeties Ed Reed and Will Demps. McAlister, Reed and Rolle have combined for five Pro Bowls. All-time great Deion Sanders fits in there somewhere, too. The Steelers will be serious contenders, but they will lose a tight race to their No. 1 rival. The Dallas Cowboys will shove aside the NFC champion Eagles and win the NFC East.

Bill Parcells was embarrassed by the Cowboys' poor performance last season when they finished 6-10. He won't let that happen again. He finally has a quarterback he can trust (the veteran Drew Bledsoe), and he will turn to running back Julius Jones to control the clock. The Cowboys' big, beefy interior defense - molded just the way Parcells likes it - will keep most games close. Michael Vick will emerge as a legitimate star. Vick enters his fifth season in Atlanta, with a reputation as an athlete that overshadows his abilities as a quarterback. That will change. His second year in the West Coast offense will be his best as a pro.