Big East Monster
16 Team League Rumbles Toward Post-Season
By Ray Mernagh

Seven is the magic number. That's the number for the most bids awarded to a single conference in NCAA tournament history. The Big East is getting ready to break the record -- which it currently shares with the Big Ten. The only question is: By how much?

When people talk about Big East basketball these days, the discussion always seems to center around the number of bids the league will receive. Yours truly went out on a limb in this publication over a year ago and envisioned a scenario where the new and improved Big East could be in position to get 10 bids. People openly mocked me at the time. As this issue of PSR went to press, the "new" 16-team Big East looks to have - according to most experts - at least eight "locks" in the NCAA field of 64. The Big East is unquestionably the deepest basketball conference in the nation, with nine teams in the top 33 of the latest RPI rankings - a statistic that based on past RPI history, would get the conference nine bids.

Kevin McNamara has been watching and covering the conference for over 20 years, and the Providence Journal basketball writer says that this is by far "the best regular season I've ever covered." And how does the veteran Big East reporter see that regular season excellence translating to post-season play?

"I'd say eight bids is a good call right now," says McNamara. "Syracuse could be the ninth team but they need to beat West Virginia tonight (2/20/06) because they don't have many good wins at all (Syracuse did indeed win that game). Then again, most of their losses are to teams in the top-10. The Big East is just so strong that it's tough to call."

While local favorites Pitt and West Virginia are in the upper-echelon of the league and have felt secure with their tournament chances for weeks, it's the teams fighting for survival that best illuminate the strength McNamara talks about. Who would've thought at this point in the season, that both pre-season darling Louisville, and traditional power Notre Dame, would each be tied with Providence and trailing Rutgers -- just to get to the Big East Tournament in New York City this month.

Of all the controversial decisions put in place when the conference expanded, the most hotly contested was the decision that the bottom four finishers in the league wouldn't qualify for the Big East Tournament. So while 12 of their adversaries enjoy the lights of Broadway and the magic that is Madison Square Garden in March, the four coaches staying home will be left to explain to their disappointed athletic directors (and big-money boosters) exactly what happened. Not surprisingly, some don't like it.

Allow Notre Dame coach Mike Brey to weigh in: "I think about last year when West Virginia was struggling (the Mountaineers started 1-5 in league play only to go on a run that started at the Garden and ended in the Elite Eight) at least they could say, 'we've got a chance to go on a run in New York if we don't get this turned around soon.' When not getting into the league tournament is a possibility, you're fighting and scratching. There's some real good teams at 10-14 fighting for their lives right now." Good teams indeed.

UConn coach Jim Calhoun thinks that fans should be paying attention to those 10-14 teams at the bottom if they want to see great basketball. "For those guys," says Calhoun, "every night is a war for survival."

One coach fighting for survival is Rutgers' Gary Waters. Waters is on the hot seat at Rutgers and probably curses the expansion daily. "It's tough when every game has so much value to it and is so intense," says Waters, "it's difficult but at the same time it's a challenge. You have to take on that challenge." Cincinnati's interim coach Andy Kennedy echoes Waters, saying the Big East, "has lived up to its billing, night in and night out, the league is brutal." While coaches complain about the four teams missing the conference tournament, the biggest negative about the current Big East basketball-wise might just be the unbalanced schedule.

The way the schedule works is not only based on TV, but who TV thinks might be good going into the season. It's hard to have a regular season champion when not every team plays each other, while others play each other twice. "The unbalanced schedule is the biggest problem with the league," says McNamara. "Coaches freak out about leaving four teams out of the tourney but the schedule is more important. It could be the reason Syracuse doesn't make the NCAA's, and it is the reason that Louisville is toast right now."

Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese understands the problem and will fix it when the time is right. "It's something we have to live with this year and next year because we have a (TV) contract," says Tranghese, "It will change when we negotiate a new contract." Frank Burlison of Foxsports.com (and the USBWA Hall of Fame) thinks the positives of the new Big East far outweigh the negatives.

"Anytime you have a league this strong it's going to help whoever is a part of it," says Burlison. "I think anytime you can get seven bids, maybe eight with Cincinnati, you just have to use that to your advantage as far as recruiting and such. They get so much TV exposure during the regular season on ESPN, and with the conference tournament in New York it's got to help you put your program on the map. Plus with Louisville, Marquette, and Cincinnati joining the league, the strength of schedule for a lot of the teams gets much better."

With this potential high number of bids going to one league, will there be a league - say a mid-major - that gets the shaft because of the new Big East? Burlison, for one, doesn't think so.

"I think some of the other leagues are down, the ACC might only get three bids, four at the most. Plus the Big East is really just taking the bids that used to go to Conference USA, minus the Memphis bid."

So while Pitt and WVU play for the highest seeds possible down the stretch, Notre Dame and Louisville play just for the chance to get to New York City and the Big East Tournament. Reality, for some, bites in the new Big East - at least until they take advantage of the positives that Burlison talked about via recruiting.

Speaking of Burlison, let's go back to the bid prognosticating one more time. Burlison says it's seven bids for the Big East, maybe eight. Kevin McNamara thinks the conference gets eight bids for sure, possibly nine.

Me? Well, Syracuse just beat West Virginia in that game they had to have, which makes nine. And there's always a team that comes out of nowhere to make a run at the Garden. I'm calling it right now, just remember you read it here first: the Big East will get 10…on second thought, I hate being mocked.

Nine it is.

Ray Mernagh is Basketball Editor for PSR. He also writes for Basketball Times and is currently authoring a book on MAC basketball. He can be reached at MernaghR@aol.com