Elite Expectations
Pitt Hopes to Make a Deep Run
By Ray Mernagh

Shortly after Pitt's loss to Georgetown on February 24, Jamie Dixon was asked about the Hoya that did the most damage to his Panthers, junior forward Jeff Green: "He's an incredible talent with his size and versatility," Dixon told ESPN.com. "We tried to recruit him. You don't always get the players you want."

Indeed.

Perhaps the most amazing thing about Pitt catapulting into the upper echelon of college basketball in the last five years is the way they've done it. There's been no elite player leading the charge out of the basketball wasteland this program resided in before the hiring of Ben Howland. Instead, the path to hoops heaven has been navigated by a series of Panther squads who've excelled by working together. With Pitt it seems, just like the new slogan from adidas, "It Takes Five."

The teams of the Howland/Dixon era have been built for success in the rugged Big East. Multiple lottery picks-Carmelo Anthony, Ben Gordon, Rudy Gay-have been humbled by Pitt's swarming, physical brand of defense inside the feeding frenzy that is the Petersen Events Center. The only problem is that Pitt's success in the Big East, both in the regular season and conference tournament, hasn't yet extended into the NCAA Tournament, the true measuring stick of success in college basketball.

The loss that ends the season for Pitt invariably comes at the hands of a team with a future first round pick like Green - a player Pitt can't seem to contain at crunch time, no matter how hard or well it plays. The list is a rich one: Dwyane Wade, Tony Allen, Patrick O'Bryant and Antonio Gates come to mind - the last being a do-everything forward for Kent State who went on to a career as an All-Pro tight end in the NFL. This has led some to believe that Pitt won't make an Elite Eight/Final Four run until Dixon either wins the recruiting battle for such a player, or lucks into one - like Marquette did with Wade or Bradley with O'Bryant.

Both players came to college as huge question marks. O'Bryant was a project who grew into his 7-foot body a few years before anyone thought possible. Wade, while no doubt a prospect with upside, came to school with the kind of academic issues that many other universities were afraid to touch. No matter what anyone tells you now, Marquette had no idea they were getting one of the best players in the world when D-Wade arrived on the Milwaukee campus.

So I wondered: What are the factors that go into making a deep tournament run and does the current Pitt team have what it takes?

"This Pitt team is the best offensively since Howland and Dixon have been there," said ESPN's Jay Bilas. "They pass much better, are much better shooting it and [Mike] Cook gives them the slasher off the bounce that they haven't had in the past."

Regarding the past, Bilas believes they've been unlucky. "Pitt has run into some really good teams first of all and their lack of offensive production and shooting have hurt them. [Aaron] Gray gives them the best post presence that they've had and Pitt is much better suited to advance with this team."

John Akers, editor of Basketball Times, agrees with Bilas.

"I guess the thing that comes to my mind," says Akers, "is that teams built for defensive success traditionally haven't done as well as teams that are built to score. The two greatest statistical predictors for NCAA Tournament success have long been scoring margin and offensive average. Pitt just wasn't built that way."

Akers adds that there's been a wrench thrown into that formula though - by the ex-Pitt coach now at UCLA.

"Ben Howland proved in last season's tournament that this isn't the way it has to be," says Akers. "Both UCLA and LSU were defense-first teams that advanced to the Final Four. This year's Panthers are as talented as any group Jamie Dixon has had and equal to the last squad that Howland took to the Sweet 16." While the Howland philosophy is still rooted in defense at UCLA, there's a noticeable difference in the makeup of his team at UCLA.

There's absolutely no question that Howland has been able to recruit a better athlete out west. Both the talent-rich areas that surround his program and the historical significance of UCLA basketball have allowed Howland access to more talent than he ever had at Pitt. One of the first big time players to commit to UCLA after Howland's hiring was current Bruin Arron Afflalo. Afflalo is a 6-5, 215 pound shooting guard that started in the 2004 McDonald's All-American game and was considered by everyone to be in the top-five nationally at his position. Howland's second recruit that same year was point guard Jordan Farmar, who played along side Afflalo in that same McDonald's game. And make no mistake; talent does matter - just ask Gary Parrish, senior writer at CBS SportsLine.com.

"Pitt hasn't gone far because they haven't had great players," says Parrish. "They've been good teams, but mostly lacking stars. Having said that, this year I think they'll be fine. They won't win a national title, but they'll do okay."

Former Pitt and UCLA assistant Ernie Zeigler, now the head coach at Central Michigan in the MAC, thinks luck has a lot to do with making a deep run come March.

"I think the thing that contributes the most to a deep run is having the good fortune to win a game that you probably should not have won," says Zeigler. "For example, at Pitt we didn't play well against Kent State or Marquette but were right there in both games - we just couldn't pull out the wins. Now at UCLA we were very fortunate to hang around after not playing well against Gonzaga for most of the game and pull out the win with great effort in the last five minutes. I think historically the majority of teams that advance to the Final Four or win a championship have that one game that they miraculously pull out to advance."

Pitt's March miracles have been limited to the Big East Tournament, specifically the 2003 championship team led by Pitt legend Brandin Knight. Still, most Pitt followers remember the loss to Marquette and the aforementioned Wade in the Sweet 16. Not me. I prefer to dwell on March 15 of that year when BK and his mates were hoisting the hardware in the Garden. But it doesn't stop me from thinking about the future and whether Pitt basketball will become a player in late March as opposed to early March.

Will current Schenley stud DeJuan Blair be "another Big Baby Davis," as one salivating coach of a Big Ten power described him before Blair signed with Pitt? Will even more elite kids follow Blair, attracted by the big fella's magnetic personality?

Or is this the year that Pitt breaks past the Sweet 16 barrier? Can Pitt make a deep run without that elite-level recruit?

We're about to find out.

Ray Mernagh is the Basketball Editor at the Pittsburgh Sports Report. Buy his book "1 Chance 2 Dance" at his website www.hoopwise.com.